Where Are Home Prices Rising and Falling?
In the aftermath of the pandemic housing boom, a pressing question lingers: Where do home prices stand now? Home prices surged during the pandemic, presenting a formidable challenge for aspiring homeowners. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau reveals a shift in the price of new construction homes—the median sales price of new houses across the nation in March 2024 dipped to $430,700, marking a 4% decrease from the same time last year ($449,800).
Despite this trend, home prices overall continued to climb in the past year. As we navigate these fluctuations, it’s crucial to stay informed before you make an offer on a home and book a moving company. Our team dove into the data, analyzing median home sale prices on Zillow for the 99 largest metro areas in the United States. We explore where home prices are falling and where they’re on the rise to uncover valuable insights and help guide your home search.
Key Findings
- In the past year, home prices in the U.S. have increased by 6.55%. The hottest cities are seeing double that growth at 13%.
- Cities showing the most growth have sale prices below the national median, indicating a shift in focus to affordable markets.
- Only eight out of the 99 biggest metros, many of them in the South, saw prices fall in the past year.
- Prices in once-hot markets—such as Austin, Texas, and Provo, Utah, that saw major growth during the pandemic—are starting to level out and even decrease.
- Overall, the most expensive homes are located in California, while many of the least expensive homes are in Ohio.
The Pandemic Boom Has Settled—Which Cities Are Growing Now?
The pandemic-induced housing boom, which saw a surge in home prices across the United States starting in June 2020 and peaking in June 2022, has now tapered off. While the national median home sale price of $337,617 has ultimately risen $90,000 since June 2020, there has been a slight decrease from the peak of $341,243 in June 2022. Despite this, some cities continue to defy this trend and experience growth even as the COVID-19 boom subsides.
From February 2023 to February 2024, cities such as Cincinnati, Ohio, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Wichita, Kansas, Syracuse, New York, and Charleston, South Carolina, have seen remarkable median price increases surpassing 13%—double the national increase of 6.55%.
Except for Charleston, each of these cities had percent increases below the national level of 38.27% during the pandemic boom. This suggests that they were initially less popular among aspiring homeowners.
Recent growth in these metros can be attributed to their affordability relative to the national median. However, Cincinnati, Winston-Salem, Wichita, and Charleston are experiencing highs in sale prices. Aspiring homeowners are now gravitating toward these areas, which escaped major price hikes during the pandemic boom, inadvertently driving up prices more recently.
Where Are Home Prices Rising and Falling?
Only eight of the 99 major U.S. cities we analyzed have experienced decreases in home prices in the past year: Cape Coral, Florida; New Orleans, Louisiana; Birmingham, Alabama; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Austin, Texas; San Antonio, Texas; Memphis, Tennessee; and Provo, Utah.
These cities, except for Austin and Provo, have home prices below the national median. With the exception of Austin, San Antonio, and Provo, these cities also saw pandemic-related price increases that were below the national median.
This raises the question: Why have these cities experienced price declines while others with below-median prices and pandemic growth have seen price increases? Geography may hold the answer.
Many of these cities are situated in close proximity to the Gulf Coast, making them susceptible to flood and hurricane risks. In contrast, the cities with thriving real estate markets are often located farther inland or solidly within the Midwest.
What Happened to the Hot Cities From the Pandemic Boom?
Cities that were hotspots for growth during the pandemic housing boom are now witnessing a slowdown. Many of these cities were already sought-after metros with prices above the national median, and during the boom, their prices soared even higher.
For example, Austin experienced the most substantial increase in sales price from June 2020 to June 2022, with home prices skyrocketing from a median of $335,259 to $547,297, reflecting a remarkable 63.25% surge. In Austin, the average monthly increase amounted to $8,000 or 1.93%. This growth surpassed the national trend, which saw prices rise by 38.27% over the same period with a month-over-month average of 1.26%.
However, in the past year, Austin has witnessed a price decrease, becoming one of only eight major cities to exhibit this trend. From February 2023 to February 2024, prices dipped by 1.23%. Although prices in Austin remain above average, the relatively small drop signals a shift in its housing market—a leveling out from the COVID-induced boom.
Provo, Utah, tells a similar story. Prices surged by $175,806 during the pandemic, marking a 52.05% change. However, in the past year, prices have begun to stabilize, showing a slight decrease of -0.27%.
Other notable cities that saw extreme price jumps are Boise, Idaho, Phoenix, Arizona and Tampa, Florida. Despite ongoing price increases, their growth rate has slowed considerably. Month-over-month price increases for these cities now hover at 0.53%, 0.42%, and 0.44%, notably lower than their pandemic boom rates of 1.90%, 1.82%, and 1.76%, respectively.
Which Cities Have the Most and Least Expensive Houses?
Many Americans struggle to afford to buy a home, especially in larger cities where home prices keep climbing. While some metro areas have high home prices that are on the rise, others offer homes below the national median, and some are experiencing declines in home prices.
California stands out as having the highest-priced markets, with San Jose and San Francisco topping the list. Both cities have median home sales above $1 million, with San Jose nearing $1.5 million ($1,451,528).
In contrast, Ohio features some of the most affordable housing markets. Ohio is home to four of the five least expensive housing markets: Toledo, Akron, Dayton, and Cleveland. In each of these cities, homes typically sell for less than $200,000.
Toledo currently holds the lowest prices at $151,742, although its recent 12.93% price increase suggests a changing landscape.
Is Now a Good Time To Buy a House?
If you’re eyeing a home purchase this spring, expect some competition. However, compared to the last few years, the current conditions offer a slightly more favorable landscape for buyers as markets adjust from the pandemic housing boom.
Forecasters anticipate a potential dip in mortgage rates later in 2024, a shift that could fuel a surge in home sales and intensify market competition. To navigate this still-competitive market, preparation is key, whether you’re a first-time buyer, upgrading to your dream home, or downsizing for retirement.
Here are two tips to consider as you prepare for buying a home:
- Take advantage of resources such as Fannie Mae’s free online homebuyer education course: Tailored for both novice buyers and those seeking their second home, this course prepares you for the process of homebuying with learning modules that you can complete at your own pace. The course emphasizes the crucial role of an experienced real estate agent, who serves as an invaluable partner, guiding you through every step of the homebuying journey to ensure well-informed decisions.
- Plan your move wisely: Selecting an affordable and reliable moving company is a key decision that many new homebuyers don’t account for. Moving costs are often underestimated but can add up quickly. If you’re moving out of state, research the best interstate moving companies to ensure a smooth transition without breaking the bank.
By arming yourself with knowledge and connecting with trusted professionals, you can position yourself for success in the housing market.
Full Home Sale Price Data Table
Methodology
For this study, our research team analyzed median home sale prices from Zillow for 99 of the largest metro areas in the United States. Sales data was available for August 2018 to February 2024. Jackson, Mississippi, does not have recorded sale prices for February 2024 and was excluded from the analysis.
Questions about our study? Please contact the author here.
Fair Use Policy
We encourage journalists and reporters to share our findings on housing market trends. If you choose to do so, please link back to our original story to give us proper credit for our research.
